East Meets West

The value of a backup is NIL

The recent events in the NHL have dropped the value of goaltending measured in cap dollars to an all time low.

The recent successes of the Detroit Red Wings, and the recent lack of success of teams with premier goaltending have pushed GM’s to abandon their highly paid goaltenders.

Which brings me to the problem of a backup. The value of a backup is NIL. You see in the playoffs, you only use one goalie. Which means any dollars spent on the backup are dollars that could have been spent on guys on the ice. Essentially you can view the backup goalie dollars as a tax on your team’s CAP. If your cap is 59.8 million dollars, and your backup consume 2 million dollars, then your effective CAP in the playoffs is 57.8.

In an era where teams are no longer dominant that 2 million can be the difference between winning and losing the damn thing.

Which brings me to the Price vs Halak debate…

The value of a very talented backup is also NIL. If the backup is good enough to be a starting goalie, then that means you are missing players that could play during the playoffs. Because regardless of how valueless a goalie may be, everyone needs a starter, and if you’re backup is one of the top 30 goalies, then there is a team that is willing to give up some talent for him.

Ultimately one of Price and Halak had to be traded. And because the CAP dollars devoted to goalies is at an all time low… the right decision was to keep the cheap guy and trade the expensive guy for some front-line talent.

A great, great, great deal.

So it’s Price

After almost two years of debates, where every shot became a goaltending controversy, Montreal has chosen to go with Halak.

In spite of Halak’s performance against Washington and Pittsburgh, Montreal decided to go with Price.

There are a bunch of questions:

1. Did Halak outplay Price this year?
2. Is Price a step-down?
3. WTH?

Let’s look at each one.

1. Did Halak outplay Price this year?

If we look at averages, Halak and the most useless of stats Wins, Halak outplayed Price.

But if we dig a little deeper, it’s not so clear.

The problem with averages is that they miss the point about goalies. Goalies either have good games or they have bad games. If you read this blog, you’ll recall that last year I observed that the difference between great and not-so-great goalies is how often they put great games together.

Let’s define a great game with a save pct >= .920 and let’s also agree that there has to be more than 30 or more shots.

Using that math we discover that Halak had 17 such games and Price had 13. So Halak outplayed Price!

Okay let’s define a good game with a save pct >= .900 and let’s also agree that there has to be more than 30 or more shots.

Using that math we discover that Halak had 2 such games whereas Price had 9.

So if we look at the good and great games, Halak had 19, Price had 22 … not so clear cut any more. And if you consider that Halak had 19 of 43 starts that were good or great and Price had 22 of 39 it’s even less clear.

2. Is Price a step down?

Not really. Halak is better if you expect to be routinely have 40+ shots directed at your net. At 40+ shots, a .920 is more valuable than a .900 save percentage. At .900 you are letting in 4 goals. At .920 sometimes you can keep it to three goals letting you win a few more games.

If you don’t expect to be routinely outshot, then Halak isn’t necessarily that much better.

More to the point, Price was good to great as often as Halak, whereas Halak was great a few more times.

So you’re trading off some great for more good…

3. WTH?

It’s not that complicated. As much as I poo-poo’ed Corsi, the reality is that if you can keep shots to below 30 a game you need good goaltending not great goaltending.

Montreal’s problem last year was the lack of a credible third and fourth line. The combination of Moore, Eller et al gives Montreal a third and fourth line. 

Halak’s 17 great games were not going to move the competitive needle effectively. On the other hand if you could keep the shots down, you could rely on Price’s good goaltending and less frequent great goaltending to win you some games.

So it all boils down to the cap. Given the holes elsewhere, spending big dollars on a goalie who wasn’t that great that often, made no sense given you had another goalie who was good just as often.

Letting it slip away

The problem with being an underdog is that unless the favorite decides to choke, you have to seize every opportunity that is presented.

The Avs and the Habs in game 2 were presented with the same opportunity and both let it slip through their fingers.

My expectation is that they will now both be eliminated in either 5 or 6 games.

Sharks 6 Avs 5: Choke III - The Reprieve

Here's my favorite part of this game:

27 million dollars got us 3 assists and 5 goals on 13 shots.

32 million dollars got us 5 goals and 12 assists.

I think HTML and Nabby should buy the rest of the team some food or something. 

Unbelievable game. 52 shots in favor, 22 against and we still had to go to OT.

If Nabby had played like crap we would have won by a blow out.

Well we have one more home game!

Fri 16 Apr 08:54:57	Avs 2 Sharks 1: Choke III - Embrace the Choke http://bit.ly/9ldLpL
Fri 16 Apr 19:10:14	At the tank.... Can we go 3 for 3 on chokes?
Fri 16 Apr 19:10:37	so we need two goals to win because of the enf.
Fri 16 Apr 19:12:29	Why do the sharks choke? Because they stop moving... Embracing my inner loser.
Fri 16 Apr 19:15:08	Ovechkin's performance was called thorntonesque
Fri 16 Apr 19:28:43	Shark tank is down.
Fri 16 Apr 19:30:26	Leach and wallin are Healthy scratches
Fri 16 Apr 19:36:45	Well for 60 more minutes nothing but positive energy
Fri 16 Apr 19:38:31	We need a good game.
Fri 16 Apr 19:41:14	Nothing but positive energy
Fri 16 Apr 19:41:39	Game started.
Fri 16 Apr 19:42:54	We'll come back. Unlucky bounce,.. Positive energy
Fri 16 Apr 19:44:42	Joe no points and -2 for the series
Fri 16 Apr 19:45:11	No negative vibes
Fri 16 Apr 19:47:32	Sharks are playing harder.
Fri 16 Apr 19:47:46	Joe played hard..
Fri 16 Apr 19:48:10	Avs playing the trap
Fri 16 Apr 19:49:50	Sharks penalty interference... amazingly bad call
Fri 16 Apr 19:51:22	Well Nabby showed up... The puck was on the red line... Almost 2-0
Fri 16 Apr 19:53:13	Sharks kill penalty and we have holding. Sharks on pp
Fri 16 Apr 19:56:33	Improved play.
Fri 16 Apr 19:58:04	Go sharks!! Compulsive typing.
Fri 16 Apr 19:59:16	Cmon joe play better.
Fri 16 Apr 20:01:11	Html is being dominated.
Fri 16 Apr 20:02:41	Anderson is playing well which is unfortunate
Fri 16 Apr 20:03:06	Interference and holding playoffs hockey ?
Fri 16 Apr 20:03:43	Sharks pp generating chances.
Fri 16 Apr 20:05:23	Cmon sharks!!!!!!!!!
Fri 16 Apr 20:05:40	Not like this damnit.
Fri 16 Apr 20:07:23	Sharks continue to push....
Fri 16 Apr 20:08:54	okay joe...
Fri 16 Apr 20:12:54	todd maybe it is time to stop the reliance on html?
Fri 16 Apr 20:13:13	Murray got a good hit...
Fri 16 Apr 20:14:36	Too many men for avs,,,
Fri 16 Apr 20:14:46	Must avoid makeup call
Fri 16 Apr 20:17:07	Heatly missed an open net. 18-5 shots for sharks
Fri 16 Apr 20:36:57	2nd period. Lets go sharks
Fri 16 Apr 20:38:50	2-1 avs ... Joe is now -3 for this series
Fri 16 Apr 20:43:08	3-2... Avs...
Fri 16 Apr 20:45:07	Joe makes a beautiful pass to blake and its 2-2.
Fri 16 Apr 20:46:55	Colorado timeout.
Fri 16 Apr 20:48:35	3-3 tie game by Pavs... Positive thoughts
Fri 16 Apr 20:54:47	Sharks are getting through trap,
Fri 16 Apr 21:00:20	Blake penalty.
Fri 16 Apr 21:01:29	Stress
Fri 16 Apr 21:05:19	Shots 27-8
Fri 16 Apr 21:06:04	We need a goal!!!!
Fri 16 Apr 21:09:12	4-3 unbelievable sharks losing...
Fri 16 Apr 21:10:10	I give up; joe has got to go.
Fri 16 Apr 21:12:56	We need a new team, joe sux.
Fri 16 Apr 21:13:31	4-4...
Fri 16 Apr 21:31:34	27 million dollars give 1 assist -9 and 6goals against....
Fri 16 Apr 21:38:33	Third period ... Let down.
Fri 16 Apr 21:39:31	I give up... Nabby five goals on 13 shots.
Fri 16 Apr 21:46:53	Thornton almost scores.
Fri 16 Apr 21:48:56	Sigh. Another choke in the offing.
Fri 16 Apr 21:50:09	Seto tries.
Fri 16 Apr 21:52:25	5on3
Fri 16 Apr 21:52:39	Interference and there it goes.
Fri 16 Apr 21:57:51	Do you go with Greis or a 6th position player on sunday
Fri 16 Apr 22:00:52	Sustained excellence is the core challenge,
Fri 16 Apr 22:02:11	I want to throw up...
Fri 16 Apr 22:06:02	Sharks on pp... For all the marbles.
Fri 16 Apr 22:06:37	Amazing
Fri 16 Apr 22:06:44	Sharks on pp...
Fri 16 Apr 22:08:15	If Nabby had played like crap we would have won.
Fri 16 Apr 22:09:32	Lets go sharks.
Fri 16 Apr 22:10:05	So do you trade big joe?
Fri 16 Apr 22:10:28	bench thornton?
Fri 16 Apr 22:12:43	Bad bad game by Nabby.
Fri 16 Apr 22:13:24	I want marco sturm back.
Fri 16 Apr 22:15:52	Joe thornton with his entire career at san jose makes a brilliant pass to Heatly who finds Pavs. How will Nabby lose?
Fri 16 Apr 22:30:29	Can we win?
Fri 16 Apr 22:31:01	Will Nabby or nobody show up?
Fri 16 Apr 22:33:12	Sharks down and the pa is playing can't find a better man...
Fri 16 Apr 22:35:34	Everybody but joe is hitting
Fri 16 Apr 22:37:48	Nabby makes some big saves...
Fri 16 Apr 22:39:34	Sharks on pp?
Fri 16 Apr 22:40:57	Seto wins it!
Fri 16 Apr 22:44:00	Shots 52-22 and we won 6-5!

Choke III: Embracing the Choke

Quick joke:

The FTC has ordered a mandatory recall of all Sharks onesies, because they are a choking hazard!

I was at work today, feeling miserable and frustrated when I suddenly realized that it wasn't the Sharks it was me.

I like to win.

I hate to lose.

But the Sharks, they don't care. And if  you don't care about winning you're a loser. And I realized that I need to embrace my inner loser.

So here it goes. I am embracing the choke. Why fight the inevitable embarrassment, when I can just not care? And if not caring isn't that important, maybe I can derive perverse joy in the embarrassment.

So I will.

If Joe Thornton can be a loser, so can I! If Marleau can not care, I can not care as well. So now the question is how embarrassing can we make this defeat? 

Choke III - The last gasp

First game of the playoffs, and the heavily favored Sharks once again, lost.

And maybe if they had lost because of the brilliant play of the other team, or had lost in spite of their own brilliant play (a goaltender who was lucky, forwards who were snakebitten), the title of this post would have been different.

But no, it was a quintessential Shark performance.

A decent first period, a good third period, a useless middle period. And the winning goal getting scored on  while HTML was on the ice. All they had to do was keep control of the puck, but a lost faceoff coupled with some really, really, really bad defense, and boom, the Sharks are down 1-0 in the series. It's as if Joe doesn't want to win.

Maybe they can come back, but they way they are playing right now, it doesn't matter. They are not a cup contender, and extending the playoffs would be nice, but pointless.

This team should have as it's featured item of the day in the Sharks store: a leather chock collar.

I said it during the Olympics, Joe doesn't have what it takes to be a winner. And the team feeds off of his inability to elevate his play.

To hell with it.

Sharks 4 Avs 3: The Torrey Mitchell Era Begins

Joe Thornton wasn't playing today. Well, okay, the difference between Joe not playing and playing as softly as he did yesterday is marginal at best.

So we got to see the beginning of the Torrey Mitchell era. Right, Torrey Mitchell was centering Heatly and Marleau. It was painful to watch.

I mean the big guys tried their best, but poor Torrey kept getting in the way.

Still not clear WHAT the point of that was... 

As for the game... It was stupid is as stupid does. Both goalies demonstrated why their teams need a much better #1. If you're a sharks fan, the idea of Thomas Greiss being #1 does not fill you with joy...

Sun 28 Mar 17:20:48	Sharks vs avs
Sun 28 Mar 17:23:31	Heatly asks; how do I score if I must pass?
Sun 28 Mar 17:25:12	Go sharks.. On pp
Sun 28 Mar 17:25:41	Boyle makes it 2-1
Sun 28 Mar 17:27:17	Boyle makes it 1-0
Sun 28 Mar 17:34:34	Watching Heatly try to pass hurts
Sun 28 Mar 18:04:31	Sharks tied 1-1 not sure what is worse our d or avs offense
Sun 28 Mar 18:07:43	Shots are 12-18
Sun 28 Mar 18:12:09	heatly made a nice move preceeded by a xcheck
Sun 28 Mar 18:13:26	sharks get a mysterious penalty
Sun 28 Mar 18:16:38	5on3 for one minute... Sharks are going down
Sun 28 Mar 18:18:27	5on3 with Demers... And we did it... But we have mcginn
Sun 28 Mar 18:19:24	Mcginn and Demers on pk and its a 2-1 game...
Sun 28 Mar 18:21:39	First round choke or what?
Sun 28 Mar 18:22:46	Marleau mitchell and Heatly... What a weird line
Sun 28 Mar 18:26:14	We are watching sharks playoff hockey! No joe to be found...
Sun 28 Mar 18:31:31	Couture ties it up.... Or not as they go to review... Unclear what happened. Bodies sticks and was there a distinct kicking motion
Sun 28 Mar 18:32:29	No distinct motion therefore its a goal
Sun 28 Mar 18:35:13	Outshot 31-19 but still a tie game
Sun 28 Mar 18:40:39	One of the PS3 singers was booed
Sun 28 Mar 18:53:23	Found oZone
Sun 28 Mar 18:56:52	The mitchell boat anchor cost us a rush
Sun 28 Mar 18:58:02	Another sloppy goal from Boyle to Pavs
Sun 28 Mar 18:58:58	It was a goal by goal off a weird bounced
Sun 28 Mar 19:02:05	Nice defensive play by Demers
Sun 28 Mar 19:07:01	Tie game... Bounced off post and then off Greis or wallin and the score
Sun 28 Mar 19:11:31	Which goalie will blunder last?
Sun 28 Mar 19:14:40	Like watching junior hockey
Sun 28 Mar 19:16:56	Seto bounces one off someone
Sun 28 Mar 19:17:30	To be reviewed for kicking motion
Sun 28 Mar 19:18:39	No kicking motion... Goal.... Seto 19th
Sun 28 Mar 19:27:02	They are pulling goalie with 2 minutes... Simulating a pp
Sun 28 Mar 19:30:08	45 shots against
Sun 28 Mar 19:30:51	Sharks win!!!!
Sun 28 Mar 19:37:15	Sharks win! mitchell Heatly Marleau line not quite as good as HTML

Todd, can we win now?

Okay, so I'm glad we're not going all out... but dude 8-2 to the freaking Dallas Stars?

And then to lose 3-2 to the freaking Florida Panthers? I mean even the ladies home picnic club hockey team doesn't lose to the panthers. And they are 70+ years old...

And now the 'nucks?

Are we at that point in the year, where the rest of the league plays playoff hockey, and the Sharks choke?

Well i guess i can plan the big barbecue for spring without worrying about the playoffs..

Price, Halak and in defense of Jacques Martin

Right now, Jaroslav Halak is going to have a great end-of-season. I just feel it in my bones.

And Price is going to ride the bench.

And folks are going to assume Jaro >> Price because of the number of games HE won.

The fact that we're about to play against 13 bad teams with our full lineup for the first time this year, has nothing to do with it.

The reality is that both Jaro and Price have had a good season. And the reality is that both Jaro and Price robbed games that we had no business being in ...

The good news is that JM unlike the stupid as shit fans, understands what's going on.

We have two great goalies. And the 24 year old goalie is coming into his prime and the 22 year old goalie is still learning.

Which gets me to my next point.

What's impressed me has been how well JM has managed his rookies. 

One of my favorite french bloggers is En Attendant les Nordiques

He does some line-by-line breakdowns of the team and sees what the match ups are. It's pretty obvious from that data that JM has been making sure that his weaker lines see very little ice-time against the stronger lines. It's also clear what has been killing the Habs from reading that blog: the lack of a good third and fourth line.

At home JM is able to get the match ups he wants. On the road he can't so he plays the Gomez+Plekanec lines more.

The lack of such depth means that we've been forced to play our top lines longer, which means we have to play a more passive defensive system to avoid players getting hurt or too tired.

As the third line improves, it can play more minutes on the road which means we can avoid the dreaded 1-4 system for longer.

Today's game was a good example. The team dropped to the 1-4 system in the third. Although that seemed stupid, one of the key success factors in winning is not burning out your team too fast. So going to a less aggressive posture meant the Habs could conserve energy. If the B's didn't try to win, then they could walk away with an easy win.

After the B's scored to make it 3-2, JM quickly returned to a more aggressive fore-check. And he could do that because his team was not exhausted. 

Sharks 8 Preds 5: Six goals in the third

So the game began with the Sharks being hopelessly outplayed by the Predators. It was painful.

The Preds took a 4-2 lead, had outshot the Sharks 200-1, okay it was 35-11. 

I was trying to decide whether I should leave the Pavilion, and then all of the sudden the Sharks decided to show who is boss.

They scored 6 goals in the third period. The highlight goal was by Pavelski. After the goal the entire stadium chanted: USA, USA, USA!

Thu 11 Mar 19:46:02	Sharks vs The Kovalchukless Thrashers.
Thu 11 Mar 19:47:24	Sharks on the pk... Nabby is trying ..
Thu 11 Mar 19:47:33	The rink is dead tonite. But STILL A SHUTOUT
Thu 11 Mar 19:48:28	Sellout.Not a Shutout...
Thu 11 Mar 19:48:41	Although the way the offense is playing it might be a shutout.
Thu 11 Mar 19:49:00	Danny misses a breakaway
Thu 11 Mar 19:49:50	And then dan gets a penalty. damn
Thu 11 Mar 19:55:50	Try try again and the Predators score..
Thu 11 Mar 19:56:09	How the hell did Thornton score 39 goals one year?
Thu 11 Mar 19:56:44	14-1 shots in favor of Preds..
Thu 11 Mar 19:57:19	Sharks d reminds me of butter
Thu 11 Mar 19:58:10	blake and maholtra collide at the blueline
Thu 11 Mar 19:58:56	Danny boy scores!
Thu 11 Mar 20:00:15	sharks come back to life
Thu 11 Mar 20:07:37	sharks are not playing. are they tweeting as well?
Thu 11 Mar 20:10:15	sharks on pp playing like on pk
Thu 11 Mar 20:12:24	17-7 shots against
Thu 11 Mar 20:36:15	3 on 1, 20 more shots than the sharks, and the game is 2-1. thank god
Thu 11 Mar 20:37:25	Sharks on the pp. fans dead. Will it be any different form the other pp. ..
Thu 11 Mar 20:37:47	Will this be any different from last Nashville PP oops PK
Thu 11 Mar 20:38:32	Big Joe scores and it's 2-2
Thu 11 Mar 20:43:47	nashville dances in our crease. thank god it''s not detroit
Thu 11 Mar 20:44:01	seto setup beautifully and misses
Thu 11 Mar 20:46:36	Some mysterious call leaves the stadium in silence.
Thu 11 Mar 20:46:44	penalty on nichol
Thu 11 Mar 20:50:51	28 shots against 10 for. The guppies are here
Thu 11 Mar 20:51:42	Finally some sustained pressure.
Thu 11 Mar 20:51:47	1 good shift
Thu 11 Mar 20:53:03	4-2. Marleau bounced it in. they are reviewing it
Thu 11 Mar 20:56:55	ref's save game by overturning goal
Thu 11 Mar 21:06:31	sharks are down 4-2 ... and they suck wind.
Thu 11 Mar 21:12:31	my wife's livescribe pen doesn't work and the sharks suck. At least my team is doing a great job.
Thu 11 Mar 21:12:49	my work team that is. my hockey team is blowing dead rats through straws.
Thu 11 Mar 21:25:46	snurfogouchi skates through everyone and misses the empty net
Thu 11 Mar 21:27:56	Heatly scored. Thank good ness
Thu 11 Mar 21:31:58	tie game, but we must wait for the review
Thu 11 Mar 21:33:16	Are the sharsk playing cafeworld instead of skating?
Thu 11 Mar 21:33:42	Why is this review taking so long? Folks in toronto harvesting their farmville crops.
Thu 11 Mar 21:34:08	No distinctive kicking motion
Thu 11 Mar 21:35:40	35-19 shots against.
Thu 11 Mar 21:38:52	Out of power
Thu 11 Mar 21:46:32	Never doubted!!!!
Thu 11 Mar 21:46:54	5 to 4 on Pavs goal
Thu 11 Mar 21:50:04	Tie game with an assist from Zebradonkeys
Thu 11 Mar 21:52:03	How Pavs it is 6-5!
Thu 11 Mar 21:54:58	And Pavs scores and the crowd says USA
Thu 11 Mar 21:58:33	Huskins almost tied the game
Thu 11 Mar 21:58:53	Marleau makes it 7-5
Thu 11 Mar 22:01:47	8-5 from Leach 65 feet out
Thu 11 Mar 22:03:23	6 goals in the third must be a record