East Meets West

Why keeping Gomez is a great plan.

Last week, I was reading my favorite hockey analytics blog, behindthenet.ca and saw this chart:

Team	SF	SA	Fen%
pit	104	67	60.8
van	50	33	60.2
was	108	89	54.8
mon	58	49	54.2
phi	85	73	53.8
det	40	37	51.9
la	67	62	51.9
nsh	38	36	51.4
ana	36	38	48.6
sj	62	67	48.1
pho	37	40	48.1
buf	73	85	46.2
bos	49	58	45.8
nyr	89	108	45.2
chi	33	50	39.8
tb	67	104	39.2

And what struck me was the relative placement of Montreal and Boston. The theory being expounded by the media was that Montreal was dominated by Boston in 5x5 situation. Except the data doesn't show that.

So if the data doesn't show it, perhaps a simpler explanation is that Tim Thomas outplayed Carey Price, and if there had been a lesser goalie between the pipes, Montreal would have advanced... Maybe the real story of the playoffs is that the Boston Bruins pulled a Montreal Canadiens...

Which is a wierd place to begin a defense of Gomez.

As I stared at that data, it got me thinking about Gomez. Seeing his +/-, I wondered what was his Corsi.

And I was a little bit shocked.

Gomez had a relative Corsi of 11. Which means that while he was on the ice, Montreal had more offensive pressure than when he was off the ice. Put in perspective only Jeff Halpern and Mathieu Darche were ahead of him.

Okay what about the regular season, a relative Corsi number of 7.4, 8th best on the Habs.

So it must have been the quality of the opposition. And there we see that indeed Gomez played against worse players than folks like Plekanec, but still it wasn't like he was playing against the bums.

Which means he was actually doing quite well beating up the players JM asked him to beat up on.

Alright then.

So what the hell?

Remember how the Habs were outplaying Boston but the media disagreed ...And it turned out that the more logical explanation was that Thomas outplayed Carey Price? An admission Carey Price made at the end of the playoffs?

Let's look at the team shooting percentage while Gomez is on the ice: 4.73% - a full 1.8% less than the next worst regular. If you compare that shooting percentage to last year it's horrifically poor dropping from 8.5 to 4.7%

So for some reason, while Gomez was on the ice, he and his teammates were shooting blanks.

Now there is this whole theory of quality of shots. And you could make the claim that Gomez was creating bad shooting opportunities. That yeah he was getting shots on net, but they were perimiter shots etc... Which might make sense but that would require a deeper analysis.

Here's my take.

I think Gomez played well but got unbelievably unlucky this year. Much like some players have a great year and their shooting percentage jumps by 5%, his dropped by 5%.

I think that the key offensive skill in the NHL is getting shots towards the net and that Gomez has not lost that skill. I believe that as long as he continues to do that he will finally get rewarded.

As far as I am concerned the "beat up Gomez" party, is as misguided as the "Halak over Price" party.

Halak was one of the wierdest hot and cold goalies of the NHL. Price was consistently better than him. It was clear that Price was improving. Whereas it was unclear whether Halak could improve his worst performances.

You heard it hear first. Gomez will have a great season.

 

 

Up 2 Games

When Chara announced he wasn't going to play last night, the game was more or less over.

The Bruins defense is significantly worse than the Montreal defense. They are slow, immobile and boring. Chara, however, for 30 minutes a game makes them look fast, mobile and lethal. 

You play with Chara and you'll look like a frigging genius. 

And adjusting to not playing with Chara is damn near impossible if you only get a 5 minute warning.

The whole Montreal and Markov comparisons are asinine. Montreal had to bring in two different players, Sopel and the Wiz, and had this guy named Subban and this other guy named Weber. And even with those three, the team defense was weak all year long compared to having a healthy Markov. 

You don't replace a great player in 5 minutes. It takes days for people to re-adjust to playing without his masterful presence. 

It's like dancing with a great dancer. The great dancer accentuates the positives and mitigates the negatives. When you dance alone, you realize how much they helped you look great. 

And yes, I would love to have Chara on my team, Max-Pac hit or no Max-Pac hit, the guy is a great defenseman and worthy Norris candidate. 

So without Chara, the Bruins' defense imploded, the Habs scored more or less at will and the Bruins are in a deep hole. 

It's not inconceivable that Boston could win two straight in Montreal, but JM is the master of the line change. JM knows how to protect the bottom of his lineup. So no, I don't think it's possible the team loses 3 games in Montreal.

Montreal in 6. 

And now for the 25th time, and the first time this century

It's the Bruins vs the Habs, again, in the playoffs. 

Smart money is on the Bruins. They have the goalie with the surreal save percentage (93.8%). They have a Norris caliber defenseman. They have grit, they have power and they have depth. And then when you look at the percentages it doesn't get any better. 

My take, Bruins in 6. If it goes to 7 games, then it's impossible to predict. One game can be determined by so many random factors that it's a coin toss. 

So what are the side stories for this round:

1. Zdeno "Blame the Victim" Chara returns to Montreal. If the Habs are in this series, the fans will scream for his blood. If the Habs are out of the series, the fans will want Gomez's blood. 
2. Tim "Better Than Hasek" Thomas is this unbelievable goaltender, except when he plays Montreal. I mean he let in 10 goals in 2 games. His performance against Montreal is so bad, that they play his backup Turko Rask. 
3. Carey "Anybody but Boston" Price is this unbelievable goaltender that was lit up for 15 goals in two games against Boston.
4. Montreal "We Care" Canadiens have been mostly competitive wherever they play, except in Boston where they have been blitzed for 15 goals.
5. Milan "I don't care if someone almost died, I want my share of blood too" Lucic who tried to pick a fight in the Max-Pac game is going to be head hunting.
6. PK "No Respect" Subban may make it out of this series with his knees intact. If he gets injured then Gomez may go nuclear. 
7. Claude "If I beat up your stars with my goons, I still won" Julien will once again face the team he started his coaching career with. The only down side of Claude is that if the Habs are winning, I expect thuggery. Would be nice to have someone who could rearrange Lucic's face. Paging Mr. White! Paging Mr. White
8. Big Tits, Turtle Neck, Squid, The Mexican Hat, and our Captain have got to show up. Their collective disappearing act at times will not fly.
9. Mr. Eller what shall we do with you? Pity Max-Pact got injured because we had three good lines, and the matchup of Eller + Big tits was causing all sorts of problems for other teams.
10. Max Pac please remember I want 10 years, not one fucking series. So if you feel ill stay home. 

Two weeks ago, I thought the Habs ran out of gas. Clearly they have not. Wins over Chicago, Toronto more or less prove that there is still some energy in the tank.

Of course it would be cool if PK went all Bobby Orr on that punk team...

 

My comments to the Sharks Management after the hit

[I am a season ticket holder for the Sharks. I sent this to my Sharks season ticket rep who forwarded it to Hockey Management. There are approximately 15k * 30 cities who pay 92% of the bills for the NHL. We owe it to our players to demand that someone protect them from acts of violence]

Hi!

I've been a hockey fan for almost 25 years (starting in 1984). I have seen a lot of crap over the years. I saw the brutal two-handed breakage of Stephane Richer's hand in the 1988 playoffs by the Boston Bruins. I have seen the removal of Koivu's eye during the Hurricanes - Habs playoff series. I still remember the decapitation of Cam Neely that destroyed his career. These were all horrific events. 

I have been a season ticket holder of the Sharks for three wonderful years.

But last night was the first night I wanted to stop watching hockey. Watching that hit on Max-Pac was just disgusting. I understand it's a violent sport. And I enjoy the roughness, but when things cross the line I expect the league I pay good money to, to actually do something and say: Hurting other players is not okay.

It's depressing and disgusting and wrong. The league's indifference to this act of violence was just appalling. I am not looking for blood. But I am looking for someone to say that watching a player stone cold on the ice, with everyone wondering if he is alive or dead is not something that this league condones. 

Is it now okay to "accidentally" hold someone's head so that it collides with a wall? That just seems wrong. 

If there is anyone you can forward this to, I would be much obliged.

kostadis

  

Why it's not an accident

A bunch of my non-hockey friends and even hockey friends asked:

Was this really intentional or just a consequence of a violent sport?

So the answer is yes to both. 

Hockey is a violent sport. That's why I like to watch it instead of sports like tennis. That's why I prefer hockey to soccer. 

And what do I mean violent? In hockey, you can get hit legally. You can be thwacked against the boards so that I can take the puck away from you. That kind of hit hurts. And a measure of a hockey player is whether he's willing to take the punishment or give the punishment. 

And I find that compelling to watch. I find it compelling to play. And I make no apologies.

In a sport where hitting is aloud, then there is always a line. A line between a necessary hit and a reckless hit. A hit that is done for tactical advantage and a hit that is done to rattle your opponent.

In yesterday's game there was no tactical advantage. This was about sending a message that no pip-squeak Habs player was allowed to sneak past Zdeno Chara near the blue line without getting hit. 

And I understand that kind of hit.

But it went over the line when Chara held Max-Pac's head and body in such a way that a collision with the wall was innevitable. 

The original goal was probably to push Max-Pac over the boards, when Max-Pac demonstrated enough strength to avoid that, Zdeno decided to hold him and run him into the glass. 

And that's where the hit crossed the line and became dangerous and reckless.

The goal was to hurt or humiliate Max-Pac. That's what we do in Hockey. But hurt in the bruise kind of way not in the life threatening kind of way.

Which brings me to my second point.

The NHL is saying it was a consequence of the environment.

I was a dirty rugby player. I once clotheslined a back who was going for a try. And I knew what I was doing. It was a dangerous, stupid play. But I did it. And I got thrown off the field.

If I knew what I was doing, Chara knew what he was doing. Yes it's a split second, but if we believe a hockey player can in a split second make a move on a goalie and score, then a player can make a split second decision to hold a players head down to ensure a collision with a wall.

The violence in the sport makes it possible for players to hit each other. And the violence allows players who are angry and pissed off to take irresponsible actions. And what sucks is not the action, but the reaction of the NHL.

In Boston they gave Chara a standing ovation.

The NHL said it wasn't a dirty hit.

And during the game Chara, the blameless, had another boarding penatly.

 

Do we need a dead body?

The last two years in the NHL have seen a rash of very viscious hits to the head. Whether it's patrice bergeron, or marc savard or the great crosby and now max-pac, something seems amiss. Players, truly great offensive players are getting their heads pulverised playing a game.

And let's not forget Eric Lindros whose career was destroyed by an unfortunate series of concussions and his brother Brett.

Being a forward in the new NHL is like being a quarterback in the NFL with no offensive line and no rules protecting your head. The only possible outcome is a concussion.

There are theories.

The lack of a redline has made it impossible for defensemen to slow down speedy forwards. But the hits that I'm talking about don't have anything to do with that kind of hit.

The instigator penalty has made it impossible for players to beat the living shit out of players who do this kind action.

The NHL doesn't view the loss of so many talented players as a problem. It's just a cost of doing business.

In Crosby's case a goon slowly moved past Crosby and head-butted him. And now Crosby has been out for half a year.

Maybe it's because I am father now, but watching this kind of violence with no consequences, and sanction by the league makes me wonder about the sport and the values of the sport.

I'm not saying Chara should get kicked out of the league. That's stupid. Chara did something stupid and the league should punsish him for 2 games. Does that send a strong message? Probably not. But at least it says that hurting players is the wrong thing to do and that you need to control yourself. 

Similarly with the goon that hurt Crosby. A couple of games would have been a good thing.

The NHL mandated helmets when someone died on the ice. I am convinced we will have a dead body on the ice, and then and only then will the NHL discover that allowing head-shots is not okay.

 

Max-pac has a broken vertebrae and severe concussion

This is so unbelievably sad. 

I don't even know how to describe how I feel.

A deliberate attempt to injure with an unknowable impact on the players ability to ever play the game.

people talk about how it's about whether he lives etc. but if you've dedicated your life to doing one thing, and that's taken from you, then the person you were died. A new person can be re-born, but it's a different person. So if this ends Max's career, then it's a form of death. 

I am so terribly sad. 

It's unclear to me what the right punishment is. But if Max-pac can't ever play again, we're looking at some very interesting legal issues.

If the NHL decides there was intent and Max-pac's future earnings are impacted, will we see an invetible lawsuit?

A terrible, terrible day. 

I'm not sure i can watch the game of hockey for the next little bit.

 

Max-Pac is finished and Chara's Manslaughter

How unbelievably grotesque. Possibly the most promising player to join the habs at the forward position since Plekanec, destroyed by Chara.

If he actually got a skull fracture and major concussion he's out for at least a year. and if he's out for at least a year, he's never going to be the player he was.

Was Chara trying to end the kid's career who knows. But he did. 

In real life you accidentally do something like that and it's a crime. In hockey, it's just part of the game. 

For the first time, I was disgusted with the game.

I saw the hits on Markov. They were evil pre-meditated acts of thugs. 

Maybe it's because they were hits to the knee. You might not be able to walk but you can still walk at night. Maybe that's why they didn't bug me. 

But when you hit someone in the head like that you're destroying their brain.

Having gotten a concussion in college, having seen friends of friends who have been incapicated for almost a year because of a concussion, hitting someone in the head is Evil.

It's not part of the game. It's about hurting someone and destroying their life. There is no excuse. 

The entire sport of hockey is a disgrace. 

Crosby out. Max-Pac out. Really? This sports is shameful.

I hope and I pray that Max-Pac has a normal life after this evil act. 

Turns out I was right, Saku was the real thing. A news group post from '95

I've been following the Habs from 1984, and started commenting on Montreal newsgroups starting in 1993. 

Here's my original post about Koivu from 1995: 

http://groups.google.com/group/rec.sport.hockey/msg/66754f8c57f3bbbf?dmode=source

"Nicholas" == Nicholas Winton <Nicholas_Win...@campuslife.utoronto.ca> writes: 
In article <1074266078.330...@campuslife.utoronto.ca> Nicholas_Win...@campuslife.utoronto.ca (Nicholas Winton) writes: 

 

> being anything other than another Gilbert Dionne?  I mean what is he 
> 5'7 - what hope is there for a one dimensional player?   

 He is 5'9 so please straighten out your facts first. 

However, here is why I think Koivu *MAY* be the real thing: 

His record in Finland is spectacular. He achieved point totals that 
have not been reached by any Finnish player that plays in the US. He 
has been a super star in Europe. The Finns have been really really 
hot on this guy. I have not seen such 'chest thumping' and 'flag 
waving' about a single player in many many a year. So the statistical 
record and the record in Finland seem to indicate that this guy is a 
'superstar'. 

Past record indicates that 'European SuperStars' can and do perform in 
the NHL which is supposedly more physical: 

1. Bure. 
2. Fedorov. 
3. Forsberg. 
4. Selanne. 
5. Mogilny. 

If Koivu is half the player these guys are he will be a tremendous 
addition to the Habs. His record in Europe seems to indicate he is 
their equal. 

Or to put it differntly only a Don Cherry activist would say Koivu is 
doomed. 

 

>Or does anyone know if he in fact is strong and physical. 

Well he has a large number of 'penalty' minute whatever that means. 

 

> If this is not true, then Montreal is in for another hyped up 
> disappointment i.e. Bellows, Turgeon, Damphousse, Dionne etc etc. 

Bellows was not a dissapointment. we expected him to score 30-40 goals 
which he did. 

Damphouse was not a dissapointment. We expected him to score 80-95 
points a season which he did. 

cheers, 
kostadis 

 

MAX PAC LIVES

Right now I am convinced someone hates Bob Gainey. What other rationale explanation can you give for the injuries the team he put together has? I mean, cmon. It's ridiculous.

Markov is injured three straight years in the playoffs

This year Georges is injured.

And Cammi.

But thanks god, not MaxPac!